Incans Global Tenant Scores

Focusing on averages can hid tenant specific risks.

November 28th 2023, London. A common theme across all our regional T200 reports is a recovery of the leisure sector tenants post-pandemic. They have bounced back from a low base, and typically record INCANS® Tenant Global Scores below their regional averages, but they are the fastest improvers.

The main trends impacting the sector are non-property, external factors, our co-founder & CEO Matt Richardson pointed out when speaking with Real Asset Media at EXPO Real 2023. These are, notably, interest rates, central bank policy and political policy.

August 22nd 2023, London. The latest T200 reports from Income Analytics (INCANS) shows a mixed picture for retail sector tenants across the UK, Western Europe and North America. In Europe, retailers score below their regional averages, while in North America they trend above the average. The leisure sector has improved but remains below average in Western Europe, while has rebounded after the pandemic to score above average in the UK and North America.

June 20th 2023, London. The latest T200 reports from Income Analytics (INCANS) shows the UK hospitality tenants continuing to be the best improvers, albeit from a low base after the pandemic. However, their European counterparts have not shown as much improvement. European pubs & restaurant scores have remained static over the last 12-months. In the US however the same tenants are seeing falling scores. Perhaps discretionary spend has been hit harder in the United States. Motor dealerships, a representation of larger discretionary spending, has seen tenant scores (and therefore the likelihood of default) fall across all three regions.

Michiel Foekens has joined Income Analytics as Director of Sales to help drive our exciting and ambitious growth plans.

April 27th 2023, London. The Income Analytics (INCANS) UK T200 report shows hospitality sector tenants are less likely to default than 12 months ago. The sector is not out of danger, with average rates still below the UK all sector average, but there is clear improvement. Pubs & restaurants recorded the largest positive change across all sectors.

February 6th 2023, London. Income Analytics (INCANS) announced today that Simon Mallinson has been appointed as its Chief Operating Officer. Established in 2020, INCANS is focused on helping clients quantify tenant income risk and minimise future losses. “We are excited Simon Mallinson has joined us as we enter the next stage of our growth” said Matthew Richardson, co-founder and CEO of INCANS. “Simon has a wealth of global experience delivering real-time, actionable data to real estate professionals and is the right individual to reinforce INCANS growth”.

Great to see our tenant default analysis feature in a recent piece by React News.

In a recent article run by EG, Pui-Guan Man looks at how real estate investors and owners are using INCANS® scores to help quantify the future cashflow at risk caused by potential tenant defaults.

Since 2008, commercial real estate has enjoyed an unprecedented bull run in terms of capital value growth. That charge is now over. Today’s economic realities mean that the returns from real estate investments are likely to be “income only” for the foreseeable future. Under such conditions investors need to shift their attention to the quality and duration of their rental cashflows.

Businesses in the logistics sector are the highest risk tenants, while those in healthcare and education present the lowest risk. These are the findings of the INCANS Top 200 Averages for Q2 2022. The ratings, created by Income Analytics, give real estate professionals a likelihood of tenant failure by using advanced statistical modelling. The lower the score, the higher the risk of default. The following are most challenged sectors using data to the end of Q2 2022:

Navigating the post-pandemic economy is turning out to be hard. Ahead are hidden hazards, sharp corners and unpredictable oncoming traffic. UK inflation rose to 9.1% in May, according to data released today. In the U.S. it is 8.5%, both at 40 year highs and both expected to grow. Energy prices are soaring, and growth on both sides of the Atlantic is doubtful: U.S. first-quarter growth was 0.1% whilst UK GDP fell by 0.3% in April.

New data on tenant default risk from Income Analytics has underscored the vulnerability of many logistics occupiers.

Matthew Richardson, Founder and CEO of Income Analytics, said: “We very much welcome the opportunity to work with EG in providing a “best in class” tenant risk solution to their clients. It is an area of the market that has been neglected for far too long, and recent events have only confirmed the need for landlords to better understand their tenants and the challenges they face.” "The INCANS® Scoring system was set up to answer a simple question – “What is the % probability that a tenant will default during the term of their lease?” We are delighted to be able to offer this capability alongside EG’s extensive data sharing platform.”

We are pleased to announce the product release of our Top 200 Industry and Property Sector Averages. This is the result of months of analysis by our research team, bringing this data to life for the first time.