Income Analytics Launches Income Risk Reports “T200”
April 27th 2023, London. The Income Analytics (INCANS) UK T200 report shows hospitality sector tenants are less likely to default than 12 months ago. The sector is not out of danger, with average rates still below the UK all sector average, but there is clear improvement. Pubs & restaurants recorded the largest positive change across all sectors.
Retail sector tenants remain at risk, and with the current cost of living crisis and its hit on discretionary spending means this is not likely to turn around any time soon. Matthew Richardson, CEO and Co-Founder of Income Analytics remarked “it might surprise many real estate investors that logistics is shown below the UK average given this has been a capital market darling, but the contract business and low margins of the sector means it has some of the largest historic business failure rates.” At the top end, education and healthcare tenants are those unlikely to be allowed to go into default through government support so are the most stable sectors.
Matthew commented “at a time of limited liquidity in the capital markets, identifying tenants at risk quickly is vital for survival. Revenue from tenants services interest payments as well as the costs of portfolio management. The T200 series helps highlight specific sectors at risk.”
The INCANS® T200 series of reports have been developed by Income Analytics using company level data provided by Dun & Bradstreet. The figures are calculated at the end of each quarter by generating an average % probability of failure for the top 200 companies in each of the 83 SIC 2 industry code type. Income Analytics provides reports for the UK, Western Europe and North America.
Download the reports here:
Q2 2023 Income Analytics T200 reports
August 22nd 2023, London. The latest T200 reports from Income Analytics (INCANS) shows a mixed picture for retail sector tenants across the UK, Western Europe and North America. In Europe, retailers score below their regional averages, while in North America they trend above the average. The leisure sector has improved but remains below average in Western Europe, while has rebounded after the pandemic to score above average in the UK and North America.
Q1 2023 Income Analytics T200 reports
June 20th 2023, London. The latest T200 reports from Income Analytics (INCANS) shows the UK hospitality tenants continuing to be the best improvers, albeit from a low base after the pandemic. However, their European counterparts have not shown as much improvement. European pubs & restaurant scores have remained static over the last 12-months. In the US however the same tenants are seeing falling scores. Perhaps discretionary spend has been hit harder in the United States. Motor dealerships, a representation of larger discretionary spending, has seen tenant scores (and therefore the likelihood of default) fall across all three regions.
Income Analytics welcomes new team members
Michiel Foekens has joined Income Analytics as Director of Sales to help drive our exciting and ambitious growth plans.
Real estate data veteran Mallinson joins Income Analytics
February 6th 2023, London. Income Analytics (INCANS) announced today that Simon Mallinson has been appointed as its Chief Operating Officer. Established in 2020, INCANS is focused on helping clients quantify tenant income risk and minimise future losses. “We are excited Simon Mallinson has joined us as we enter the next stage of our growth” said Matthew Richardson, co-founder and CEO of INCANS. “Simon has a wealth of global experience delivering real-time, actionable data to real estate professionals and is the right individual to reinforce INCANS growth”.
Retailer health check: who will be next after Joules?
Great to see our tenant default analysis feature in a recent piece by React News.
How NewRiver is stress-testing its portfolio
In a recent article run by EG, Pui-Guan Man looks at how real estate investors and owners are using INCANS® scores to help quantify the future cashflow at risk caused by potential tenant defaults.
UK CRE investment markets go "income only" as yield gap over bonds disappear
Since 2008, commercial real estate has enjoyed an unprecedented bull run in terms of capital value growth. That charge is now over. Today’s economic realities mean that the returns from real estate investments are likely to be “income only” for the foreseeable future. Under such conditions investors need to shift their attention to the quality and duration of their rental cashflows.
Logistics tenants are under pressure while retail woes continue
Businesses in the logistics sector are the highest risk tenants, while those in healthcare and education present the lowest risk. These are the findings of the INCANS Top 200 Averages for Q2 2022. The ratings, created by Income Analytics, give real estate professionals a likelihood of tenant failure by using advanced statistical modelling. The lower the score, the higher the risk of default. The following are most challenged sectors using data to the end of Q2 2022:
Driving with the rearview mirror: CRE needs a new roadmap for recession risks
Navigating the post-pandemic economy is turning out to be hard. Ahead are hidden hazards, sharp corners and unpredictable oncoming traffic. UK inflation rose to 9.1% in May, according to data released today. In the U.S. it is 8.5%, both at 40 year highs and both expected to grow. Energy prices are soaring, and growth on both sides of the Atlantic is doubtful: U.S. first-quarter growth was 0.1% whilst UK GDP fell by 0.3% in April.
Risk of tenant default higher in logistics than retail or leisure
New data on tenant default risk from Income Analytics has underscored the vulnerability of many logistics occupiers.
Income Analytics partners with EG Radius to supply tenant and asset risk solution for the UK real estate industry
Matthew Richardson, Founder and CEO of Income Analytics, said: “We very much welcome the opportunity to work with EG in providing a “best in class” tenant risk solution to their clients. It is an area of the market that has been neglected for far too long, and recent events have only confirmed the need for landlords to better understand their tenants and the challenges they face.” "The INCANS® Scoring system was set up to answer a simple question – “What is the % probability that a tenant will default during the term of their lease?” We are delighted to be able to offer this capability alongside EG’s extensive data sharing platform.”
Income Analytics releases industry market averages to the platform
We are pleased to announce the product release of our Top 200 Industry and Property Sector Averages. This is the result of months of analysis by our research team, bringing this data to life for the first time.
New PDF report release
We are delighted to announce that we have released a new set of tenant, asset and portfolio level PDF reports. These will be available on the INCANS platform from Monday 7th February 2022 and have been developed in response to client feedback over the last 12 months.
MSCI on calculating the risk to real estate income
In this month's PERE publication René Veerman from MSCI Real Estate writes about how Covid has shown the need for data tools that enable investors to understand the risk that tenant defaults pose to cashflows and hence why MSCI Inc. has invested in Income Analytics and is providing access to the INCANS tenant income risk dashboard to its global client base.
MSCI: "Understanding Tenant Default Risk with Income Analytics"
Check out this fantastic new video by MSCI Real Estate MSCI Inc. on our partnership and 'how and why 'this is such an exciting and important partnership for the global commercial real estate industry.
Welcome to new starter Lucy Baker
We are excited to announce that Lucy Baker has joined Income Analytics as our new Account Manager, she will be working closely with all clients as well as our Sales team.