Tenant Watch Issue 26

21.09.26

TenantWatchIcon Welcome to Tenant Watch, a regular newsletter from Income Analytics that summarises news affecting key occupiers of commercial property. Tenant Watch provides real estate brokers, investors and lenders with a summary of recent news articles focusing on financial health and future occupational requirements. 
Author: Jack Baker
Contact us: info@incans.com

Retail

JD Sports will enter Mexico through a long-term franchise partnership with Grupo Axo, which will operate more than 140 JD locations and its Mexican ecommerce business from 2027. The expansion marks JD’s first entry into Mexico, with selected stores set to be enlarged and refurbished into its flagship format as the retailer targets a growing activewear market forecast to reach almost £8bn by 2034 (Retail Gazette, 21/09/26).

JD Sports reported weaker first-half trading as subdued consumer demand and a highly promotional footwear market weighed on its major regions. Group sales fell 0.7% to £5.9bn and like-for-like sales declined 2.8%, including falls of 1.4% in the UK, 4.0% in North America and 3.3% in Europe. Online sales provided some resilience, increasing 5.2% following the introduction of new ecommerce platforms in the UK and Ireland (Retail Gazette, 23 September 2026). 

Superdrug has expanded and refurbished its store at Redical-owned Merry Hill in the West Midlands, making the 12,831 sq ft unit its largest in the UK. The reopening will create 15 permanent roles and 10 seasonal positions (Property Week, 23/09/26).

Co-op’s first-half revenue rose 2.4% to £5.6bn, while its underlying operating loss widened from £32m to £45m. The company said £11m of the change reflected accounting treatment, with investment in prices and stores also affecting profitability. Net debt excluding leases fell from £317m at the end of 2025 to £239m (Retail Gazette, 23/09/26).

H&M’s third-quarter operating profit rose 23% to £461m (SEK 6.04bn), while sales increased just 0.3% to £4.36bn (SEK 57.19bn). Its gross margin rose to 54% from 52.9%, partly helped by one-off tariff and import effects, while reported sales for the first nine months fell 4.4% year on year (Retail Gazette, 24/09/26).

Morrisons has appointed Dr Mohsen Ghasempour as chief AI officer, effective 1 October 2026. Joining from Kingfisher, he will establish a central data science and AI function focused on customer growth and operational efficiency, reporting to CEO Rami Baitiéh (Retail Gazette, 24/09/26).

Rochdale Borough Council and asset manager RivingtonHark have secured Peacocks on a long-term lease for a 10,181 sq ft unit at the council-owned Rochdale Riverside shopping centre. The letting takes occupancy to 92%, following a 15.3% year-on-year rise in footfall in July (Property Week, 23/09/26).

Kingfisher raised its full-year profit guidance after first-half adjusted pre-tax profit increased 9.9%. The B&Q and Screwfix owner generated sales of £7.1bn, up 1.6%, while adjusted pre-tax profit reached £404m as improved gross margins and cost control supported earnings. Kingfisher now expects FY2026/27 adjusted pre-tax profit of £595m to £635m, compared with previous guidance of £565m to £625m (Reuters, 22 September 2026). 

Mango has opened a second Chester store as it continues to expand across the UK. The new 6,200 sq ft Eastgate Square location offers both womenswear and menswear and follows openings in Cheltenham, Kensington and King's Road as Mango targets further growth in southern and northern England under its 2024 to 2026 strategic plan (Retail Gazette, 24 September 2026). 

Aldi has moved fresh produce operations into its £500m automated distribution centre at Bardon as it builds capacity for further UK expansion. The 1.3m sq ft Leicestershire facility is expected to handle more than 1.5m kg of fruit and vegetables per day at peak periods once fully operational in 2027, ultimately serving close to 350 stores and processing almost seven million pallets annually (Retail Gazette, 24 September 2026). 


Logistics

FedEx’s plan to reduce its US and Canadian real estate footprint by around 30% by the end of 2027 could place nearly $3bn of CMBS debt across 174 FedEx-anchored US industrial properties at risk. Around $837m, or 29%, is backed by properties where FedEx’s leases expire before the associated loans mature, creating potential vacancy and refinancing challenges as the company exits 475 stations, around 200 of which had already closed by February 2026 (Bisnow, 18/09/26).

Kuehne+Nagel has signed a strategic partnership with CATL covering battery logistics, electric road freight and emissions reduction. Initial projects include electrifying CATL transport flows in Europe, while the companies will also collaborate on battery recycling, aftersales support, energy storage and charging infrastructure for logistics sites (Kuehne+Nagel, 24/09/26).

Kuehne+Nagel has also entered into a long-term strategic collaboration with Amazon covering logistics support for Amazon and AWS infrastructure. The agreement spans the AWS infrastructure lifecycle from construction and equipment deployment through to maintenance, upgrades and expansion, with the logistics group aiming to improve supply-chain resilience, scalability and operational efficiency as Amazon's cloud infrastructure expands (Kuehne+Nagel, 21/09/26).

CEVA Logistics has expanded its long-standing contract with JLR, becoming the exclusive provider for new-vehicle transport and distribution in France. The three-year agreement includes full direct distribution of around 7,000 vehicles annually from Zeebrugge, alongside CEVA's existing responsibilities across France and the Benelux, with HVO also being introduced to reduce emissions across the European distribution network (Transport Online, 24/09/26).

GXO is piloting a new global labour management system across the UK, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the US ahead of a wider rollout in 2027. The platform will provide real-time visibility into labour performance and workforce planning, allowing sites to align staffing more closely with customer demand as GXO seeks to standardise operations and improve productivity across its warehouse network (GXO Logistics, 23/09/26).

Maersk has opened a new 71,800 sq m logistics centre in Herleshausen, Germany, expanding its European contract logistics network. Located at Panattoni Park Bad Hersfeld Ost on the A4 motorway, the facility includes 62,800 sq m of warehouse space and is positioned as a central hub for goods flows across Germany and neighbouring European markets (Trend News Agency, 23/09/26).


Office

Jane Street has agreed to pre-let 450,000 sq ft at One Spitalfields in London from JP Morgan Asset Management. Current occupier A&O Shearman intends to leave in May 2027, after which the building is due to be redeveloped, with completion expected in 2029 (BE News, 24/09/26).

The Bank of England has secured a new long-term office at Capitol House in Leeds as it significantly expands its presence in the city. The Bank plans to relocate from Yorkshire House in late 2028, with the new premises supporting its growing Leeds workforce, which currently numbers just under 300. The move forms part of a wider location strategy that also includes refurbishing the Bank's Threadneedle Street headquarters and consolidating its London property footprint by the end of 2028 (Bank of England, 21/09/26). 

BNP Paribas has renewed and expanded its substantial office presence at the Avatar building in Kraków, committing to a combined 9,534 sqm. BNP Paribas Bank has renewed its existing lease while BNP Paribas Société Anonyme's Polish branch has signed an additional agreement, with the group now occupying five of the building's six floors and around 85% of its office space. The decision followed an almost three-year review of alternative workplace and leasing options (EurobuildCEE, 23/09/26). 

Germany's Darmstadt Main Customs Office has renewed its lease on almost 8,000 sqm at Atrium Office in Darmstadt. The government authority, which occupies close to 60% of the approximately 13,500 sqm building, has extended its occupation for the longer term, retaining its position as the property's largest office occupier (CIJ Europe, 24/09/26). 
 


Other

Heineken’s Stars Pubs & Bars is reportedly nearing a £300m deal to acquire 300 venues from Stonegate Group. The potential transaction forms part of Stonegate’s plan to sell more than 1,000 pubs from its £1bn-plus Platinum portfolio as the TDR Capital-owned group seeks to address more than £3bn of debt following a £214m annual loss (Property Week, 21/09/26).

Whitbread has appointed Legendre UK to convert the largely vacant 80,000 sq ft Phoenix House office building in Vauxhall into a 180-bedroom Premier Inn. The project will retain much of the existing structure, with construction due to begin later in 2026 and complete by the end of 2027, after which Whitbread will lease the hotel from Lambeth Council for 30 years (Property Week, 21/09/26).

Google has been fined €403m by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission following a six-year investigation into its collection and storage of users’ location data. The regulator found multiple GDPR breaches involving the lawfulness, fairness, transparency and retention of data across three Google features, and ordered the company to bring its practices into compliance within six months (Euronews, 21/09/26).

Volkswagen has been removed from the Euro Stoxx 50 after its declining market valuation fell below the index threshold, requiring tracker funds to sell their holdings. The company’s shares have fallen almost 30% in 2026, while around €10bn of one-off charges prompted Volkswagen to cut its operating-margin forecast from 4% to 5.5% to no more than 1%. More than €6bn of the charges relate to a Porsche writedown, although Volkswagen maintained its cash-flow and liquidity forecasts and estimated an underlying margin of around 4% (Euronews, 21/09/26).

INEOS is mothballing three chemical plants at Saltend Chemicals Park in Hull, citing gas prices it says are 12 times higher than in the US. Two plants have stopped production, with the third due to follow. INEOS says the plants support nearly 4,000 jobs, which could be at risk if the shutdowns become permanent (Business Live, 22/09/26). 

Airbus is investing £150 million to convert its former A380 wing factory in Broughton, North Wales, into an A321 wing production facility. The work is due to finish by the end of 2026. Airbus expects to create around 480 jobs across the Broughton site this year, including 250 in the refurbished factory (Business Live, 21/09/26). 

Related Stories
The Outlook for German CRE Market 2026/2027 Webinar Summary

The Outlook for German CRE Market 2026/2027 Webinar Summary

Income Analytics’ latest webinar examined the outlook for Germany’s commercial real estate market over the next 12 to…

Read more... 29.09.2026
Income Analytics webinar - The Outlook for the German Commercial Real Estate Market 2026/2027

Income Analytics webinar - The Outlook for the German Commercial Real Estate Market 2026/2027

Don't forget to join our CEO Matt Richardson and leading market experts on Monday 28th September 2026 for an in-depth…

Read more... 2.09.2026
Market Data Snapshot

Market Data Snapshot

DATA AS AT END Q1 2026

Read more... 22.07.2026
Income Analytics Webinar

Income Analytics Webinar "Deploying AI in commercial real estate" Summary

Income Analytics webinar - Deploying AI in commercial real estate investment markets, June 2026 Income Analytics’ most…

Read more... 1.07.2026
Income Analytics New Risk Benchmark Module

Income Analytics New Risk Benchmark Module

We are pleased to announce the release of our new INCANS® income risk benchmarks for France and Germany, which is…

Read more... 13.05.2026
Income Analytics Webinar

Income Analytics Webinar "When Tenants Go Bad" Summary

When Tenants Go Bad: How Landlords Can Anticipate and Manage Tenant Default Risk, April 2026 A special thanks to our…

Read more... 22.04.2026
Income Analytics webinar - When Tenants Go Bad- Planning and managing commercial real estate tenant defaults

Income Analytics webinar - When Tenants Go Bad- Planning and managing commercial real estate tenant defaults

Join our CEO Matt Richardson on Tuesday 21st April as he chairs our first webinar of 2026. This session will focus on…

Read more... 24.03.2026
INCANS - 5 Years & Counting

INCANS - 5 Years & Counting

A message from Income Analytics Co-Founder & CEO, Matthew Richardson Today is a special occasion as it is 5 years…

Read more... 5.03.2026
Income Analytics Commercial Property Webinar: The Outlook for the Listed Property Sector

Income Analytics Commercial Property Webinar: The Outlook for the Listed Property Sector

Income Analytics closed its 2025 webinar series with a deep dive into one of the most pressing issues in UK real…

Read more... 19.11.2025
Tenant Credit Trends: Q2 Snapshot Across UK, Europe & North America

Tenant Credit Trends: Q2 Snapshot Across UK, Europe & North America

As investor confidence continues to hinge on tenant quality, the latest INCANS® T200 data offers a revealing look at…

Read more... 25.09.2025
European Office Real Estate 2025: Buying the U? - Webinar Summary

European Office Real Estate 2025: Buying the U? - Webinar Summary

The webinar, hosted by Matthew Richardson, was the third in a series, this time exploring the European office market.…

Read more... 7.07.2025
Q1 2025 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Q1 2025 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Income Analytics is pleased to release its latest T200 reports. Our T200 series quantifies the default risk across the…

Read more... 10.06.2025
From Global Expansion to Distress: The Story of Groupe Casino

From Global Expansion to Distress: The Story of Groupe Casino

It has been interesting to follow the fortunes of French supermarket giant Groupe Casino in recent years. We have…

Read more... 28.05.2025
Revisiting Retail - Webinar Summary

Revisiting Retail - Webinar Summary

The webinar "Revisiting Retail," hosted by Income Analytics, explored the state of the retail property market in the UK…

Read more... 12.05.2025
Q4 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Q4 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Income Analytics is pleased to release its latest T200 reports. Our T200 series quantifies the default risk across the…

Read more... 12.03.2025
Review - Why Logistics Real Estate Leads the Way

Review - Why Logistics Real Estate Leads the Way

The Income Analytics webinar on 10th February 2025, "Why Logistics Real Estate Leads the Way: Stability, Demand, and…

Read more... 10.02.2025
Q3 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Q3 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Income Analytics is pleased to release its latest T200 reports. Our T200 series quantifies the default risk across the…

Read more... 14.01.2025
The Problem with UK REITS

The Problem with UK REITS

REITS are an important vehicle for many investors to access the durable, long-term income that commercial real estate…

Read more... 13.01.2025
Q2 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Q2 2024 Income Analytics T200 Reports

Income Analytics is pleased to release its latest T200 reports. Our T200 series quantifies the default risk across the…

Read more... 23.09.2024